Tuesday, November 24, 2009, 3:39AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 5 hours and 51 minutes.
Suddenly, it's the least attractive job in the country.
Bank of America has been searching for a new CEO for months, ever since battered Ken Lewis announced that he was stepping down. But no one wants the job.
Why not?
Because they'll have to listen to annoying government bureaucrats vilify them all day, says analyst Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities. Because they'll be unable to hire top people because of pay constraints. Because they'll be forced to chop up the company instead of reaping the rewards of scale. Because they'll be limited to a pay package that would make the average dime-a-dozen Wall Street managing director go bitching to his boss about how he was being underpaid.
All of which means, Bove says, that Bank of America's board once again looks incompetent. ...
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» MoreThe irony here is that Bullard is being characterized as a dove when, in fact, the opposite may be true. This is no small matter since Bullard will become a voting member of the FOMC in 2010.
So let's review:
The dollar weakness Monday morning was attributed, in part, to Bullard's comments that he would like to see the Fed continue its program of buying mortgage-backed and other asset-backed securities, rather than let it expire on March 31, as currently planned.
As with last week's brouhaha over his comments about the Fed possibly staying on hold until 2012, the headlines about the asset-buying program miss some of the nuance of Bullard's view.
Bullard recommends continuing the program "at a very low level," Dow Jones reports, adding: "As long as we are at zero [percent], we'd be able to send signals to the markets about what we are thinking about the economy, and how much accommodation the economy needs at various points, by adjusting the asset purchases."
In other words, if the asset-buying program is kept open, it can be another tool for the Fed to communicate with the market by means other than moving the Fed funds rate.
After spending some time with Bullard Sunday evening, it's pretty clear to me that he's no dove. As you'll see in the accompanying video, Bullard is very concerned about the potential for asset bubbles and the Fed's role in creating them...
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From The Business Insider, Nov. 23, 2009:
Microsoft (MSFT) wants to pay News Corp (NWS) and other large publishers to de-list their Web sites from Google's (GOOG) search index, the Financial Times reports.
The idea is to force Google (GOOG) to pay for content, thinning its currently fat margins.
Problem is, we can't imagine Google going for it.
For one, the FT reports that Google’s UK director Matt Brittin told a conference last week that Google did not need news content to survive.
“Economically it’s not a big part of how we generate revenue,” he said
For another, we can't imagine links to worthwhile stories originating from News Corp not finding their way onto sites that will happily remain indexed in Google's search engine free of charge.
Still, if News Corp were to "de-list" from Google, we'd expect to see all kinds of ads touting Bing as the only place to find the Wall Street Journal and MySpace pages online. Maybe that'd swing search engine share some, but we doubt it.
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» MoreOn the heels of Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankenfein's apology for his firm's role in the financial crisis, some of Goldman's largest shareholders are unhappy more of Goldman's prosperity isn't being passed along to them, The WSJ reports.
Despite record net income and compensation, analysts forecast Goldman's 2009 earnings per share will be 22% lower than in 2007, and roughly equal to its 2006 earnings, according to Thomson Financial. The drop in EPS is caused by the more than 100 million shares issued in the past year to bolster Goldman's financial position and capital.
While the article doesn't name the "miffed" shareholders, Goldman's five-largest shareholders as of Sept. 30 are mutual funds:
As Aaron and Henry discuss in the video, the standard payout ratio of 50% of profits Wall Street has long enjoyed does not make sense in this economy. Wall Streeters could stomach a lot less, especially when most individual Americans are pocketing a 0% payout.
Of course this mounting criticism comes amid Matt Taibbi's "Vampire Squid" takedown of Goldman this summer...
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» MoreTreasury Secretary Tim Geithner took some heavy fire on Capitol Hill Thursday. Days after Oregon Democrat Peter DeFazio called for Geithner's resignation, Texas Republican told the Secretary: "The public has lost all confidence in your ability to do the job."
While these comments were notably terse, it's not unusual for politicians to take shots at a Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman in order to score points with their constituents. It's a key part of the "dog and pony show."
What is unusual is for a sitting Secretary or Chairman to return the favor, as Geithner did yesterday, telling Brady: "What I can't take responsibility is for the legacy of the crises you've bequeathed this country."
There's obviously a "we inherited a disaster" mentality in the Obama administration and maybe this was just partisan politics and another example of how civility is in ever-decreasing supply in Washington. Or maybe Geithner is getting tired of the criticism and thinking about moving to the private sector sooner vs. later, as Henry Blodget writes.
The other issue here is why Geithner is getting such heat now when the economy is on firmer footing and the crisis seems to have passed. Some possibilities...
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The post-op on the great crash of 2008 continued in Washington Thursday as the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) held a hearing on financial reform.
"Unfortunately, the regulatory regime that failed so terribly leading up to the financial crisis is precisely the regulatory regime we have today," Treasury Secretary Geithner declared. "We need comprehensive financial reform."
As a former executive director of the JEC and professor of government/business relations at University of Texas, James Galbraith knows a bit about public policy. As the son of esteemed economist and "The Great Crash" author John Kenneth Galbraith, he also knows something about what it takes to put the pieces back together after a speculative boom and bust.
There is a way to have a financial system with a "reasonable degree of stability" and "serves a public purpose," Galbraith says. "But it does require having a government which is not run by the financial sector."
Galbraith didn't use the term "Government Sachs," but said "we're not going to get where we need to get...if you have this revolving door where all the people from Wall Street go down to Washington and offer their services and basically serve their own worldview and the financial interests of their friends."
While there seems to be no discussion of prohibiting the sort of "public service" practiced by so many alums of Goldman Sachs, or of reinstating Glass-Steagall (something he also supports), Galbraith says there is some progress being made on the reform front...
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Disappointing reports this week on housing starts and foreclosures, as well as the index of leading economic indicators, have cast a bit of a pall on the "robust recovery" story, putting a crimp in the stock market's ascent in the process.
University of Texas professor James Galbraith was never a believer in the V-shaped recovery and says it's going to take a very long time for the U.S. to recover from a "truly extraordinary slump."
What the optimists are missing is the impact the housing bust is having on both American's ability to borrow and banks willingness to lend. The resulting credit contraction will prevent this recovery from following the path of those following prior post-war recessions, he says.
"There's no question the U.S. economy has stabilized but [it] remains very weak and will likely continue to be weak," Galbraith says. "There's very little sign the benefits that are being felt on Wall Street will be felt in the broader country anytime soon."
Galbraith predicts the unemployment rate will continue to rise into 2010 and decline "very slowly" thereafter. The U.S. economy needs "substantially greater policy intervention," he says, focused on the following...
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» MoreAs President Obama wrapped up his first trip to China this week, there was plenty of talk about partnerships but few concrete agreements reached on (1) whether or not China will let its currency float freely (2) and China's concerns about U.S. debt.
"Obama, Geithner and Bernanke, they're the three bond salesmen of the U.S. They're going to see our best client and hoping our client is happy," says Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Apparently they're not happy and the question is what do we do to make them happy?," Boockvar tells Aaron.
Of course, Boockvar is talking about the fact that China is the largest foreign lender to the United States. With Obama heading to visit America's largest creditor, it was no coincidence both Bernanke and Geithner publicly expressed support for a strong dollar during the past week, he says.
But Boockvar says anger about a depreciating dollar is aimed at the wrong direction. "Blame the Fed, don't blame the Chinese," he said. "The Fed is the one that's artificially depressing the dollar."
Furthermore, chatter about China allowing the renminbi to float is a "red herring," Boockvar says, noting Americans can't afford a price spike in imports.
Bottom line: There's growing global competition for capital and the U.S. ultimately will have to play ball. So who will blink first?
» MoreIn recent months, Goldman Sachs made a good run at becoming The Most Hated Company In The World.
How?
By nearly going bust last fall, getting a cash bailout from the taxpayer, immediately denying that it ever needed any help, and then minting so much money over the next twelve months that it will pay 2009 bonuses in excess of $20 billion.
A couple of weeks ago, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein then compounded the problem by going on a PR offensive in which he said Goldman was doing "God's work."
Goldman does provide a lot of valuable services, but it's hard to imagine in what universe they would deserve that description.
First, Lloyd Blankfein thanked the government publicly for its help. And then, yesterday, he apologized for some of Goldman's actions in recent years. In addition, Goldman - with a helping hand from Warren Buffett - announced a $500 million charitable project to assist 10,00 small businesses.Americans are very forgiving. As long as public figures (and firms) express gratitude for help and contrition for perceived wrongs, Americans are happy to move on.
Americans also love winners--and Goldman is a major winner.
So we--and our guest Howard Lindzon, CEO of StockTwits--expect that the Goldman hatred has passed its peak and that the world will now move on.
Click "more" to embed the video.» MoreFrom The Business Insider, Nov. 18, 2009:
Paulson & Co told its clients that Bank of America (BAC) stock will double in the next two years.
In a quarterly letter to clients, Paulson said he expects the bank to rise considerably after writedowns ease up:
Bloomberg: “banks will have passed the current writedown cycle and have visibility for growth in 2012,” the letter said. Bank of America dropped to $2.53 in February amid concern that the U.S. might seize banks that ran short on capital. While the bank “has risen from when we purchased the stock, we believe considerable upside remains,” the letter said.
Paulson's bullish outlook follows the opposite move from SAC Capital, which just sold 90% of its BAC holdings.
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